by | Michael Roemer, Partner, Munich, michael.roemer@atkearney.com | Christian Weiss, Consultant, Munich,
christian.weiss@atkearney.com | Steffen Gaenzle, Consultant, Munich, christian.weiss@atkearney.com |
Contributors in Southeast Asia | Kaushik Sriram, Principal, Singapore, kaushik.sriram@atkearney.com | Dr. Hasan Shafi Partner, Kuala Lumpur, hasan.shafi@atkearney.com
Kaushik co-leads A.T. Kearney’s Automotive practice for South East Asia, with extensive experience advising clients on mobility trends and implications, across autonomous vehicles, EVs, freight technology solutions. He advises private and public sector clients on strategic and policy imperatives arising out of the major disruptions in mobility, guiding their thinking on investment themes, partnership options, regulations and policies. Kaushik has done over 15+ consulting engagements on these topics across the world, and has authored thought pieces on several mobility topics.
Dr Hasan Shafi works with clients in Oil & Gas, Chemicals and other asset intensive sectors. He specializes in strategy development and execution, large scale transformation, M&A, performance improvement and digital transformation. Hasan has also worked as a senior executive in the chemicals sector heading up Strategy and M&A functions. As a member of the firm’s global EPI practice, Hasan works closely with the A.T. Kearney Energy Transition Institute with a specific focus on the topic of Energy Transition in the region.
Transportation as we know it would be impossible without the quantum leaps in technology that have taken place over the past centuries. It is undeniable that the next big thing will be autonomous driving. With this wave of innovation, traditional players in the automotive industry could wind up in the passenger seat, with new entrants sitting pretty behind the wheel.
For original equipment manufacturers to survive in this market, there are five key questions to answer:
1. How can OEMs match consumer needs with autonomous driving solutions, while overcoming skepticism about relinquishing control of the vehicle?
2. How will the market for autonomous driving develop and what will the associated product roadmaps look like?
3. How will government legislation keep pace with new technologies while also addressing questions of liability?
4. Which business models will win in the new industry?
5. What role will partner and competitor ecosystems play in autonomous driving?
To help answer these questions,A.T. Kearney conducted more than 150 interviews with executives at companies around the world who have a strong motivation to make autonomous driving an affordable reality for consumers and for businesses. Our findings reveal crucial insights along the five key questions:
Consumer needs
• The connected consumer prefers an individual lifestyle in a big city environment
• More urbanization results in intermodal mobility; services enabled by mobile devices provide consumers with more flexibility and time
• Car ownership becomes less relevant than car-sharing services and platforms
Market and product roadmaps
• Changing consumer behavior causes a paradigm shift toward mobility as a service and a preference for lavish private transportation
• The market for autonomous driving grows to $560 billion by 20351
• The main product categories around autonomous driving include mobile apps, special equipment, autonomous cars, mobility services, and infrastructure
• Developed and mature markets, including Asian megacities, spearhead market development and a global rollout
Legislation, technology, and liability
• Until 2025, legislation is the main roadblock to autonomous driving
• The most pressing legal issue is accident liability
• Achieving economic savings is the primary reason to drive legislation
Partner and competitor ecosystems
• Existing players in the automotive industry collaborate with new entrants to offer value-added services
• Traditional OEMs have the first view on the consumer; the first OEM to build a value-added service network with partners wins the market
Business models
• Autonomous driving threatens the very existence of mid-level automakers as the market develops along three segments: premium, low-cost, and drones
• The industry splits in two—those that manufacture vehicles and those that provide consumer services
Implications for Malaysia
For Malaysia, we have identified key imperatives along 3 areas:
In this full report “The Next Generation of Automotive Sales: 2025 and Beyond”, we describe the forces shaping the autonomous driving market and what the market will ultimately look like. We also define the core questions facing incumbent OEMs and offer our recommendations on necessary preparations to compete in this market in terms of product structures, business models, and teams.
